Players under rookie contracts can be one of a team's most valuable assets. When you land a star-level player in the draft, the value per production ratio is invariably in your favor. Production equals wins and wins have a value.
Our rule of thumb puts that value at about $2.5 million. Well, Anthony Davis is going to get paid around $4.3 million as a rookie for being the top pick in Thursday draft. To justify that salary, he just needs to be worth at least two wins. Needless to say, he projects to do considerably better than that.
This is tremendously valuable to rebuilding teams. For prime examples, just look at the Chicago Bulls. After drafting Derrick Rose, the Bulls were rewarded with a level of production that made Rose the league's MVP in just his third NBA season. During that season, he earned just $5.5 million. With Rose in place as a low-cost foundation player, Chicago was able to lock up Luol Deng and Joakim Noah, while going out and signing a premium free agent in Carlos Boozer. Down the line, the costs shoot up, but there is no better way to stock a roster than by starting with a star player on a rookie contract.
With that in mind, let's look at some projected values from last night's draft. The first section takes a look at the lottery. The second section projects the rest of the first round. We're going to see which players project as the best values over the four-year duration of their rookie contracts. I've projected each player's on-court production using my ATH system for projecting rookies.
Source: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2367
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